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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 6

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(5:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 17-S.Morgan to LA 3 for 3 yards (58-C.Littleton; 20-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model