4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
@
OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 Tottenham Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CHI
59.2%
OAK
40.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • LV defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CHI crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23
–
OAK 20
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CHI

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Ted Larsen G Out Knee
Bilal Nichols DT Out Hand
Mitchell Trubisky QB Out left Shoulder
Joel Iyiegbuniwe LB Doubtful Hamstring
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Knee

OAK

Gabe Jackson G Out Knee
Clelin Ferrell DE Questionable Concussion
Richie Incognito G Questionable Back
J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Knee
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Foot
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 21
–
OAK 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD LV (15:00) 28-J.Jacobs left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – OAK 6
  • Q2 09:56 TD LV (9:56) 33-D.Washington right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – OAK 13
  • Q2 02:00 FG LV (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. CHI 0 – OAK 17
  • Q3 12:48 TD CHI (12:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – OAK 17
  • Q3 04:03 TD CHI (4:03) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 12-A.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-K.Joseph]. CHI 13 – OAK 17
  • Q3 01:22 TD CHI (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CHI-17-A.Miller, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CHI 20 – OAK 17
  • Q4 02:00 TD LV (2:00) 72-D.Sharpe reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – OAK 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 57%

    (9:50) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 23%

    (5:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to LV 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LV 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at LV 49 for 13 yards (47-I.Irving).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 85%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:27) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to LV 33, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:16) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to LV 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:27) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to CHI 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-35-C.Riley.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:58) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 29-T.Cohen to LV 16 for 71 yards (22-K.Nixon).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%

    (7:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to LV 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 25-E.Harris right guard to LV 31 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-24-B.Skrine at LV 27. 24-B.Skrine to LV 24 for 3 yards (58-K.Wilber). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 25-E.Harris right guard to LV 31 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (:21) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 20 for 1 yard (35-C.Riley).