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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 25-E.Harris right guard to LV 31 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-24-B.Skrine at LV 27. 24-B.Skrine to LV 24 for 3 yards (58-K.Wilber). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 25-E.Harris right guard to LV 31 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.88 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model