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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 75

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to LV 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model