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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to LV 33, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model