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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:50) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model