4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 42

Chicago Bears 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to LV 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP