Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Chicago Bears 21

(:21) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 20 for 1 yard (35-C.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP

69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.26 EP
31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -1.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model