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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to LV 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.66 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -2.05 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model