4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to CHI 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-35-C.Riley.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.72 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP