4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PIT
37.2%
SF
62.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.252 vs Mason Rudolph (PIT) -0.088 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Mason Rudolph in place of Ben Roethlisberger)
  • SF defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

Anthony Chickillo LB Out Foot
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Knee
Vince Williams LB Out Hamstring

SF

Tevin Coleman RB Out Ankle
Jalen Hurd WR Out Back
Joe Staley T Out Fibula
Trent Taylor WR Out Foot
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Ankle
Dee Ford DE Questionable Quadricep
Jaquiski Tartt S Questionable Toe
Jimmie Ward S Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 20
–
SF 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:52 FG PIT (11:52) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – SF 0
  • Q1 02:07 FG PIT (2:07) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 06:48 FG SF (6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. PIT 6 – SF 3
  • Q3 09:21 TD SF (9:21) 30-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – SF 9
  • Q3 05:54 TD PIT (5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at PIT 35. 65-yac PIT 12 – SF 10
  • Q3 01:02 TD SF (1:02) 30-J.Wilson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PIT 13 – SF 16
  • Q4 10:28 TD PIT (10:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-yac PIT 19 – SF 17
  • Q4 01:20 TD SF (1:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 18-D.Pettis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 81%

    (11:52) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%

    (7:03) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:40) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to SF 20, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 28 for 8 yards (24-B.Snell).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (2:07) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:21) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to SF 23, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 38 for 15 yards (25-A.Burns).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:48) 4-J.Berry punts 60 yards to SF 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 46 for 14 yards (51-J.Elliott). PENALTY on PIT, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SF 46.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (:58) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:22) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to SF 14, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 25 for 11 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:20) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to PIT 18, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:13) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to SF 20, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 25 for 5 yards (51-J.Elliott).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:28) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to PIT 28, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for -2 yards (41-E.Moseley). PENALTY on PIT-80-J.Holton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 29.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Washington (29-J.Tartt).