Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Washington (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.48 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -1.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP