Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(5:40) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to SF 20, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 28 for 8 yards (24-B.Snell).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.08 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model