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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model