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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.06 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP