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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model