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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 92

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 4-J.Berry punts 60 yards to SF 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 46 for 14 yards (51-J.Elliott). PENALTY on PIT, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SF 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model