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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP