Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to PIT 28, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for -2 yards (41-E.Moseley). PENALTY on PIT-80-J.Holton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model