Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.239 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.315 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- LV defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- LV offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- KC defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
KC
OAK
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:24 FG LV (10:24) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 0 – OAK 3
- Q1 04:50 TD LV (4:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 16-T.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – OAK 9
- Q2 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – OAK 10
- Q2 05:57 TD KC (5:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 17-M.Hardman for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – OAK 10
- Q2 01:46 TD KC (1:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – OAK 10
- Q2 00:47 TD KC (:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – OAK 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EPp(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%
(10:24) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to LV 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 17-D.Harris to LV 40 for 11 yards (44-D.O'Daniel, 50-D.Lee).
-
Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:12) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to KC 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 28 for 7 yards (50-N.Morrow).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EPp(convert) 70%
(12:36) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to KC 3, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 15 for 12 yards (58-K.Wilber). PENALTY on KC-49-D.Sorensen, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 10.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 22%
(3:44) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to KC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 22 for 13 yards (52-M.Lee). LV-17-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on KC-44-D.O'Daniel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.
-
Q3 KC 4th & 18 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 31%
(12:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Thomas, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 14.
-
Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(5:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to LV 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-B.Pringle.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:50) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to KC 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 35 for 20 yards (52-M.Lee).
-
Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 30-J.Richard to LV 21 for -1 yards (42-A.Sherman).
-
Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(9:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles up the middle to KC 48 for 8 yards (54-D.Wilson).