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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(9:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles up the middle to KC 48 for 8 yards (54-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model