4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to LV 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model