Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(5:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to LV 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-B.Pringle.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model