Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(11:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 30-J.Richard to LV 21 for -1 yards (42-A.Sherman).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model