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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to KC 3, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 15 for 12 yards (58-K.Wilber). PENALTY on KC-49-D.Sorensen, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 10.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.74 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP