Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

(12:50) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to KC 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 35 for 20 yards (52-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.64 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model