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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to KC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 22 for 13 yards (52-M.Lee). LV-17-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on KC-44-D.O'Daniel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP