Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(1:12) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to KC 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 28 for 7 yards (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.87 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model