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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

IND
41.6%
TEN
58.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): -0.065 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

IND

Jabaal Sheard DE Out Knee
Jonathan Williams RB Out Rib
Kemoko Turay DE Doubtful Neck

TEN

Reggie Gilbert LB Out Knee
Kevin Pamphile G Out Knee
David Fluellen RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 19
–
TEN 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:57 TD IND (8:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD TEN (15:00) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 72-D.Quessenberry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – TEN 6
  • Q2 08:05 TD IND (8:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 15-P.Campbell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – TEN 7
  • Q3 11:34 TD TEN (11:34) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – TEN 13
  • Q3 04:40 FG TEN (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 13 – TEN 17
  • Q4 04:42 TD IND (4:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – TEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 32 for 18 yards (30-C.Milton). PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 32.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to IND 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 18 for 13 yards (48-B.Brinkley; 31-K.Byard).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:41) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 28 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke; 38-R.Lewis).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 39%

    (1:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:20) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to TEN 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at IND 40 for 17 yards (14-Z.Pascal).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:40) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 83%

    (10:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:29) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to IND 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 31 for 11 yards (53-D.Bates, 29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to IND 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 26 for no gain (29-D.Cruikshank; 30-C.Milton).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:24) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to IND 36 for 1 yard (99-J.Casey).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:14) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 44%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown.