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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(10:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model