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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 87

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:20) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to TEN 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at IND 40 for 17 yards (14-Z.Pascal).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.62 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model