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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to IND 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 18 for 13 yards (48-B.Brinkley; 31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP