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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model