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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.72 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP