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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model