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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 32 for 18 yards (30-C.Milton). PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 32.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.63 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP