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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(6:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to IND 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 31 for 11 yards (53-D.Bates, 29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model