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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CHI
42.9%
DEN
57.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CHI on 4 more days rest than DEN
  • DEN offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CHI

Trey Burton TE Questionable Groin
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Oblique
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Questionable Knee
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

DEN

Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee
Andy Janovich RB Out Pectoral
Joseph Jones LB Out Triceps
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Foot
Todd Davis LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 16
–
DEN 14

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:50 FG DEN (9:50) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. CHI 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 13:39 FG CHI (13:39) 15-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 05:15 FG CHI (5:15) 15-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – DEN 3
  • Q3 01:17 TD CHI (1:17) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – DEN 3
  • Q4 13:40 FG DEN (13:40) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. CHI 13 – DEN 6
  • Q4 00:37 TD DEN (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – DEN 12
  • Q4 00:01 FG CHI (:01) 15-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 16 – DEN 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 86%

    (9:50) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DEN 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 31 for 8 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 32%

    (6:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 35 yards to CHI 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%

    (13:39) 15-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (9:44) 6-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 70%

    (5:15) 15-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 37%

    (1:53) 6-C.Wadman punts 32 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 75 yards to DEN 3, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 13 for 10 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:26) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 7 yards (59-M.Reed).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 44%

    (6:50) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (13:40) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to DEN 24, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 42%

    (8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at CHI 41 for 4 yards (58-R.Smith).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DEN 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 38 for 17 yards (48-P.Scales). DEN-36-T.Marshall was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 47%

    (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to CHI 33 for 10 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to CHI 7 for 5 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson to DEN 35 for 25 yards (25-C.Harris).