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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 49

Denver Broncos 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 35 yards to CHI 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP