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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 45

Denver Broncos 6 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at CHI 41 for 4 yards (58-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.90 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model