4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 25

Denver Broncos 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.73 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP