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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 34

Chicago Bears 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 15-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.51 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP