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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 60

Chicago Bears 13 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson to DEN 35 for 25 yards (25-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -0.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP