Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 73

Chicago Bears 13 – Denver Broncos 6

(12:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to DEN 24, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model