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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 44

Denver Broncos 3 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model