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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 72

Chicago Bears 13 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DEN 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 38 for 17 yards (48-P.Scales). DEN-36-T.Marshall was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model