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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 20:20 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

PIT
42.7%
NE
57.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Tom Brady (NE) +0.164 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.262 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24
–
NE 26
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

Sean Davis S Doubtful Ankle

NE

Matt LaCosse TE Questionable Ankle
Obi Melifonwu S Questionable Ankle
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 3
–
NE 33

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:55 TD NE (4:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-J.Gordon for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 11:54 FG NE (11:54) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. PIT 0 – NE 10
  • Q2 03:54 TD NE (3:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – NE 16
  • Q2 00:21 FG NE (:21) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. PIT 0 – NE 20
  • Q3 10:19 FG PIT (10:19) 9-C.Boswell 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – NE 20
  • Q3 08:13 TD NE (8:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-P.Dorsett for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 520th career TD pass, ties Brees for 2nd-most all-time (P. Manning 539). NE 13-Dorsett 1st career multiple TD game. PIT 3 – NE 26
  • Q3 00:16 FG NE (:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. PIT 3 – NE 30
  • Q4 06:41 FG NE (6:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. PIT 3 – NE 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to PIT 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:01) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to NE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:33) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to NE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 38 for 20 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (11:54) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:10) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to NE 20, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 35 for 15 yards (37-J.Dangerfield).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to PIT 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:04) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to NE 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 38%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Moncrief (23-P.Chung).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 88%

    (:21) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.10 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (10:19) 9-C.Boswell 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 38%

    (5:27) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to NE 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (12:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Moncrief. Penalty on PIT-78-A.Villanueva, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (6:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to PIT 45, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 74%

    (:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 13-J.Washington to NE 26 for 6 yards (58-J.Collins).