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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 21

New England Patriots 30 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model