4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to NE 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model