Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 7

(2:33) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to NE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 38 for 20 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model